Intricacies of the Afghan Election

Polls opened today in Afghanistan with Washington watching closely in hopes that elections are peaceful and leave a lasting mark of democracy for future state building. Pakistan has the same interest on perhaps an even more immediate level. Successful elections in Afghanistan are an integral ingredient to Pakistan’s domestic offensive in uprooting dangerous factions, expanding the economy, nurturing their democracy and stabilizing relations with neighbors. But if a candidate does not receive at least 50% of votes in this first round, “elections are pushed to a second, more unpredictable round of voting". And second round elections might agitate an already rickety political climate amidst apprehensions of violence, which is entirely detrimental for Pakistan given domestic and regional circumstances right now.

On a domestic front, Pakistan’s military continues to make progress against dangerous groups. Weakened by the death (and or disappearance) of leader Baitullah Mehsud, the Taliban in Pakistan “seems to be in disarray”. Meaning Islamabad’s offensive against factions this year are bearing fruits for the War on Terror and shifting toward more stability, hopefully for the long term. But if elections in Afghanistan are pushed to a second round, weeks of political irresolution can allow terrorist groups an opportunity and climate of uncertainty within which to recuperate from losses and cause turmoil. Which since 2001 has shown that a dangerous spillover effect exists wherein militant groups spillover into Pakistan harboring themselves into the nebulous, virtually imperturbable northern Afghan-Pakistan border.

Broader regional considerations also factor into Pakistan’s hopes for stable elections. The spillover of militant groups since 9/11 intensifies Pakistan's long desired interest in seeing a democratic, stable Afghanistan where refugees may repatriate. In fact,Pakistan hosts one of the largest refugee populations in the world, an underreported story that actually helps explain why dangerous factions were able to develop in Pakistan. Millions of devastated Afghans, some armed and many destitute from fighting the Soviets in the 1980’s found refuge from their war ravaged country in Pakistan. A mostly destitute population seeking refuge in a developing country with highly volatile political circumstances allowed violent sectarian and religiously extremist factions to exploit and recruit refugees to their cause. In addition, there are heavy economic costs for Pakistan in maintaining a large number of refugees. Since last years military escalation in Afghanistan, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees explains that there is around 2 to 2.1 million Afghani Refugees now living in Pakistan. He said the United Nations planned to launch an emergency appeal for hundreds of millions of dollars needed to sustain refugees that have come to Pakistan in just this past year. So peaceful and efficient elections in a first round that move Afghanistan in a direction of democratic stability is integral to Pakistan’s security: they relieve Islamabad of a very costly responsibility to a long-standing refugee challenge.

Although some minority, yet raucous opinions say elections ushering democratic authority and weaken militant groups are not in Islamabad's interest because they “diminish Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan” thus suggesting policymakers are strategically motivated to prevent losing an allegedly malleable buffer zone that Afghanistan serves against India. It’s an unlikely, poorly reasoned notion. It attempts to be qualified by citing Islamabad’s focus on uprooting the spillover of refugees, militant, and fundamentalist groups from Afghanistan into Pakistan, so as to avoid confrontation with supposed malleable buffer forces. But expecting policy makers to divert efforts from turmoil at home to external threats is a laughable assertion. Before taking care of neighboring militant groups whose primary focus is not on fighting Pakistanis, Islamabad legitimately devotes resources to uprooting domestic factions who pose an immediate threat. Suicide bombings have become an almost weekly recurrence in Pakistan and with that level of instability, calling on Pakistan for not doing enough to uproot neighboring terror is outrageous. Plus, NATO forces and amplified American presence in Afghanistan furthers the absurdity of such calls for Pakistan to ignore turmoil at home and focus on Afghanistan.

But maybe the most unreasonable way of supporting a notion that Pakistan lacks interest in successful elections refers relations with India. Specifically, that Islamabad’s refusal to remove forces from the Indian border despite current spillover from Afghanistan indicates Pakistan's excessive concern with an Indian threat. A few reasons why this is incorrect: firstly, referring again to amplified U.S. and current NATO presence and given an abundance of domestic threats that require Islamabad's attention, redeploying troops to the Afghan border does little to help Pakistan, (especially weighted against the risks of doing so). Secondly, even if troops from were redeployed, those forces are squarely trained/equipped to face a potential Indian threat not in counterterrorism. Which became well known much to Washington's dismay with the Pakistan military's multiple unsuccessful attempts at uprooting terrorists from the northern regions of Pakistan.

Finally, a refusal to redeploy forces is not because of an “excessive” concern given the reality of current Indian-Pakistani relations. The Mumbai atrocities occurred less than a year ago and the aftermath saw a speedy, vehement escalation of tensions. Some Indian media and politicians fanned the flames, and when tensions rise between India and Pakistan, the world gets nervous. By way of a counterfactual, we can tie how these tensions relate to justifying Islamabad’s decision to maintain troops on the border: If, God Forbid, another atrocity took place on Indian soil since 11/26/08 and Pakistan had redeployed troops away from the border. The result could be an even further escalation of tensions, a terrifying potential for confrontation ensues and Pakistan’s capacity to defend against an already far more immense Indian force is drastically diminished. Which itself has a potential to cause hasty, over offensive beahvior from either side. Basic lessons in realism thus teach us that redeployment away from the Indian border is out of the question. Given the sensitive circumstances since 11/26 I think military strategy might advise the same. Thus from a Pakistani policymakers point of view, troops on the Indian border is a legitimate priority. If anything, one might even argue they deter confrontation.

So, allegations that Islamabad is not sufficiently committed to stable election processes in Afghanistan are just not reasonable. If anything, successful elections relieve Pakistan of deep social and economic costs through refugee repatriation. And from the Mumbai atrocities to countless civilians who suffer daily from terror and a climate of instability that allows violent factions to operate, a peaceful, prosperous Afghanistan beginning with successful elections is very much in Pakistan's interest.

Pakistan E.U. Relations - Assistance & Development

Major news outlets did a good job of covering our relations with Pakistan in July with in depth stories on talks as Secretary Clinton and Special Envoy Holbrooke visited. But a story that was relatively under reported involves Islamabad’s interactions with Europe and their Asian allies. Understandably, those relations are secondary to our direct dealings with Pakistan, however certain communications are worthy of note to help better understand Islamabad’s current circumstances and interests:

While Foreign Minister Shah Qureshi in discussions with Secretary Clinton proposed the increased efficiency of allowing Pakistan direct access to drone aircraft's in the offensive against terrorists in the North, Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani approached the EU for “assistance in capacity building for its law enforcement agencies through imparting training and supply of sophisticated weapons systems” in their efforts to “eliminate militancy and terrorism” in his meeting with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

Subsequently, interior minister Rehman Malik made progress with the French government. The French are reported to provide Pakistan with specifically, “electronic security equipments” in addition to “sending experts to help training at police academies”. Those security equipments consist of “scanners which would be installed at all the entry and exists points of the capital” for enhanced security in addition to “bullet proof jackets”. Additionally, Daniel Touanneau, the French Ambassador to Pakistan commented positively on Pakistan’s efforts to fight terrorism.

Despite progress on anti-terror supply issues, the French made clear that no new nuclear plant would be constructed for Pakistan. The French Secretary of State for Foreign Trade, Anne Marie Idrac explained that without approval from the international community, they would not commission in any foreign country. She reiterated French support of Pakistan’s commitment to democracy and pledged 300 million Euros in aid at the Friends of Pakistan meeting in Tokyo recently. She also cited trade between the two countries increased by six percent. But Pakistan is economically in dire conditions overall and Prime Minister Gilani is more seeking to convince the EU to “support Pakistani negotiations for a free trade agreement” which would allow their exports to gain increased market share in Europe. Specifically, he proposed that the “EU create a new category in GSP arrangements designed to help countries suffering from terrorism”. This would include Pakistan into a well established system allowing them preferential trading arrangements in Europe. The proposal received diplomatic acknowledgement and overall it seems, France is working with Pakistan in their efforts to uproot terrorism.

Similarly, Italy is set to finance ten “development projects worth $100 from the debts that Pakistan” owed them. In addition, 10 million is allocated for the “rehabilitation of displaced persons”. I think this sort of project is worthy of note. Without delving into details, the concept of using past debt to finance large scale development projects that employ everyday Pakistani’s and have a strong potential to create lasting infrastructure and spur trickle down prosperity on some level is valuable. Especially in addition to the EU grants of 150 million Euros in humanitarian assistance most of which I anticipate will go to the recent refugee issue that has caused international concern. In tandem with such assistance, large scale development projects in financial cooperation with international governments could be an effective way spur lasting, progressive change. Because providing needed supplies for counter terrorism in the north, coupled with funding to make sure refugees from that area are not permanently displaced in addition to development and opportunities for future trade are solid starting grounds for building a more socially and politically stable Pakistan.

Defining the U.S. Surge for Pakistan

“Pakistan Objects to U.S. Plan for Afghanistan War” reads an article last month in the New York Times updating us on our foreign policy. The article forewarns of “fissures” in the U.S. Pakistan alliance at this critical moment when President Obama sends additional troops to the region. The article specifically outlines Pakistan’s insistence on maintaining forces along the Indian border when the United States expresses concern that the Afghan border is of greater priority. Pakistani officials, to some international dismay, contend that it is more constructive to maintain dialogue with some parts of the Taliban rather than going at the group in an all out military offensive. The piece continues to explain that, sources from the Inter Services Intelligence Agency (ISI: Pakistan’s intelligence agency, their equivalent to our CIA) briefed Special Envoy Holbrooke this morning in their strong concerns of an U.S. “surge” which would “result in more civilian casualties, further alienate local populations. Thus more local resistance to foreign troops”. And while the article continues with how these concerns contrast starkly with U.S. fears that Pakistan is not focusing enough on the Taliban in the north, it is important to revisit the consequences of, and reassess our long-term strategy in Operation Enduring Freedom. Because more of the same may not be an apt solution given that the war is escalating in terms of U.S. costs (on various levels), the region is deteriorating, and prominent experts now claim the effort is doomed to be “unwinnable”.

The fact is, this is the deadliest month for U.S. troops in Afghanistan and where there once was no Al Qaeda or Taliban in the sovereign state of Pakistan, now exists a terribly frightening border through which terrorists are fleeing and situating themselves in the north. Furthermore, it is important to remember that until recently, the Taliban was not considered a terrorist organization, although alarming they were not a military threat before 9/11. Al Qaeda was the main target in Afghanistan, and their presence in Pakistan was minimal, if at all. Since our invasion, the Taliban and Al Qaeda are increasingly difficult to differentiate, and rather than being obliterated, are moving in to Pakistan. And a once ideologically problematic group of Islamic extremists, the Taliban, are now dangerously aligning with far more treacherous terrorist outfits like Al Qaeda.

In a similar way, other regional militant groups are gaining ground as extremist groups evade NATO forces and subsequently weaken our anti-terrorist efforts. The Mumbai atrocities and embassy attacks in Afghanistan last year are testimony to the danger of militant groups advancing their efforts in an increasing climate of instability. This only legitimizes Pakistan’s skepticism of continuing an predominantly military means to combating terrorism. If limited surgical strikes, close intelligence sharing, and consistent provision of anti-terror training and supplies is agreed as effective amongst officials, the U.S. and Pakistan should focus on a “surge” on these fronts.

So when the news paints a clashing picture of interests between Pakistan and the United States, it is a simplistic one. Both states actually have an intense interest in securing the region against terrorists and while they might disagree on tactics, it is important that the Obama administration at least reassess the previous administration’s policies of simply implementing a military “surge”. Even if a surge in troops is potentially successful, working closely to expand on what has proven to be effective is a safer option. So a discerning look at this weeks supposed "fissure" between U.S. and Pakistani officials in discussing cooperation should prompt us to better understand Islamabad's concerns and perhaps reassess our strategy .